Ann: Production growth to continue at Snake River, page-22

re: Ann: Production growth to continue at Sna... AC87,

Forget RFE MC comparison. If you're going to do basic valuation start with the common metric. Since you've highlighted BOEPD we'll use it.

Really rough rule of thumb
1. Take %Oil (so say 80%)
2. Multiply by BOEPD
3. Multiply by $100,000 if oil price $100 +/- 10%

So AOK at 1,000 BOEPD with 80% has "point in time peer valuation" of

80% x 1,000 boped x $100,000 = $80M

OK so roughly a double from here.


What you should then really do is take an average of the the past 4 Qtrs of avg boepd. The would be the TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) looking back avg.

Some companies give you in their quarterlies the past quarter avg, the exit rate for the past qtr and then what they are guiding to for the next guidance and what the 12 months exit and avg might be.

That would help you establish the "growth perscentage" of production Qtr over Qtr.

You can then track that Qtrly against the basic valution metric, along with price of oil to see whether the market is valuing the company at a discount or premium.

Up to you then to research why.


Roughly speaking IMO. There are also plenty of other valuation metrics to use.