Ann: Production and Drilling Update, page-8

Here is a little light reading, published by a reputable 3rdparty (American Petroleum Institute), giving an overview of Oil & Gas inColorado. Might be useful to have a map of Colorado handy showing the countiesand distance (for "nearology" and "comparison" purposes).

API Colorado June 2018

Now another interesting data point ... WTI benchmark ... referenced all the time & probably the famous....defined as  most a light, sweet crude with an API gravity of 39.6 degrees. General picture chart below. Why is this interesting? Well FPL in their announcements "The oil from Florence has shown to be 31 – 35 API gravity light crude, a premium product" which is barely in the Light Oil range. Their filings with COGCC (Magellan for example has monthly production filings of 30, 31,32 API and the big producers in the IOG acquisition are at 32 API (Oilfish),  30, 31 & 32 (Paiute) and 30,31,32 (Blue Marlin)). I'm not sure if that would be a "premium product" by WTI measurements would it (but then they also said that "The Pierre formation is rich in crude oil (~99% oil cut) and limited associated gas.").

Perhaps fortuitous is that the Suncor refinery in Commerce City, who buys FPl's oil production presently, is geared towards the heavier crudes (and imports from Canada some of Suncor's oil sands production and syncrude).

BUT I do have good news!!! FPL is at least up to date with productionreporting to COGCC .... which means a little analysis can be done to look atthe results of the past year ... why FPL can't do this in their annual reportis questionable .. I mean FPL is in the business of oil and gas exploration andproduction. so how much oil did you produce and how much did it cost to findand develop it and how much did you receive for selling it. Pretty basic stuffreally.

OK the Oil production and sales for the flagship Pathfinder project. I didthis on well level data ... this is the summary On the surface the comments would be its a good result for the workoverprogram. as H2 has grown production by 64%. However, and it seems there isalways an if/but, the bulk of the improvement comes from 2 wells, in that3,400 BO in H2 was added by 2 wells which in H1 only produced 301 BO. Probablyneed to see another HY of production.

	Prod	Sold
Q1	4,328	3,870
Q2	4,098	3,741
H1	8,426	7,611
Q3	5,290	4,244
Q4	8,550	6,080
H2	13,840	10,324
% Grow	64%	36%
FY'18	22,266	17,935

The oil production for KY?? Well lets just use the midpoint of FPL estimateof 20-25 bopd. So FY estimate = 8,213 BO produced.

Lets assume they sold it allTotal Company production = 22,266 + 8,213 =~ 30,370 BO (or ~83.5 bopd)

Total Company sales in BO = 17,935 + 8,214 =~26,150

Revenue from continuing operations $1,011,912 or approximately$38.70 per Barrel of oil

Lets say that KY production and sales are "overestimated" by 100%and we reduce it to 4,065 BO

Total company sales are now 22,000 BO and an average price of $46/Bbl.

For sake of completeness WTI average price for Jul-Dec 2017 = $51.14 & For Jan -Jun 2018 = $64.20 and yearly avg of $57.67I believe this is the "discount" to the WTI index price I keepreferring to (keep in mind FPL had the benefit of much improved 2nd HY ofproduction and sales).