Transport as few others answered here will be liable to the companies on site.
Contacted a north american private co. to get an idea how much 1%+ cobalt ore costs they estimate $40/tonne in DRC. If we throw a 50% contingency to $60/tonne. But these estimations imo are non-applicable here.
They've gone a different business model. They've hedged the ore price to LME spot price, and they'll hedge most of the offtakes with LME spot aswell by the looks.
So basically get the profit margin between the two prices minus opex/admin per tonne.
LME goes up; ore prices get expensive and offtakes will hedge the additional cost.
LME goes down; Offtakes will bring in less revenue and ore prices hedges.
So less riskier business model and will be less profitable if LME rockets up, but will increase chances of consistent profitability.
Few other interesting pick up notes other than transport risk being offset:
1. They've hedged the business model to LME spot and per grade delivered
2. They also considered contaminants for penalty.
3. Payments will occur only if the ore can be successfully processed, they can fill the pad until then.
So essentially three hedges in place. First to protect themselves against lower LME prices and grades. Secondly if ore is higher in contaminants they'll contractually to pay less for the risk they take to process it. Thirdly, if they can't process the ore then its no payment.
4. Original ann was 10,000tpm and I did my calculations based on that. Looks like they've managed to contract 53,000tpm acid soluble (oxides or soluble sulphides).
So even if 60% of their suppliers drop off the grid they can run at full capacity. Makes a huge difference as my calcs. were assuming initial 120ktpa, but looks like they'll start things at 250ktpa.
Should note though metallurgical liabilities fall on WFE.
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Pure speculation have a feeling Langford mightve had his hands in this, he's involved with Huayou.
Huayou owns 5 subsidiaries across DRC.
3 out of the 5 subsidiaries own the projects mentioned here, Kambove, Kolwezi and Likasi projects. The ore might not be directly from these projects but smaller higher grade deposits next door, perhaps just an odd co-incidence.
" Huayou Cobalt currently controls at least five subsidiaries in DRC.209 In a 2014 report, ReportLinker states the company owns “Kolwezi mine, Nyoka mine and Kambove tailings”"
Everyone was happy to laugh saying 1% cobalt wasn't possible, yet here we are. Funny a little open minded research and you can figure things out before the crowd.
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Important however to remain level headed and dont get too far ahead of ourselves. The price targets I've read so far have been ridiculous on the upside lol (even though I love dreaming myself). There is still lots of moving parts remaining and work to do and its far too early to say if this will be a successful operator or not.
Positive is ASX is nitpicking hard here, so if this does get through then all the pieces of the operation are solidified.
Whats left is (and these are still risks to consider)
1. Plant valuation. It was constructed for $80M but doesn't mean its worth $80M. Some depreciation would have taken place (just like purchasing a car). Will be interesting to see what it comes at.
2. Kumi will finally step in now and begin auditing these mining operations.
3. Category B license.
4. AIHC accounts audit to see if they're capable of running the JV.
5. Offtake agreements (what price or percentage of LME and quantity) - this will be the biggest and most important part imo. I think the rest also play a role but my two biggest concerns from the get go was if they'll get the right ore (acid soluble, >1% Co, low contaminants) and offtakes. One of them are completed today the way fitting my criteria. Second comes in.
ASX will likely audit this all themselves, make sure there isn't any loose ends either. So step by step project will derisk if they can secure those. And ASX likely wont accept anything fluffy like "we have engaged in offtake discussion", so if this is given permission to relist its ready to get going.
Early days still imo, both risks and upside potential remains but slowly the puzzle comes together. Good hurdle completed today.
Cheers
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