I think you've hit the nail on the head .... "a fair way to go before first gas".
Models are only ever "indicative". So the output is built on assumptions and I model based on Residual Earnings. Also models are forward looking in a "perfect world". What isn't in the model per se is RISK! Are there are lots of them.
So today's price is risk adjusted view of what discounted future earnings might be.
Maybe someone is looking to lower their risk level.
And on that subject, farmout lowers risk per se. My view is COE should not farmout Sole - keep 100% (as COE has taken on the vision/risk/debt to get it done) but farmout Manta so that COE will not nee9sd to raise additional equity capital (but likely only need to issue more debt to D&C Manta with partner(s)).
Ann: Presentation to Australian Domestic Gas Outlook Conference, page-7
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