Re FUM ... they're up on the year (14%) up slightly on the 6...

Re FUM ... they're up on the year (14%) up slightly on the 6 months ... but down on the quarter (Q4 vs Q3) as markets went into free fall.  The recovery since 31/1 would have them now up on Q3 even if they hadn't attracted any new inflows!  So I don't think the lack of growth in total FUM over the last qrt is of any real concern.... but it would have been nice to see them accelerating the gross inflows (rather than plateauing over the past 3 qrts).

IMO the business is highly geared to success.  They're spending like they're a major player, they're attracting new inflows like they're a major player (13% of inflows) ... but they're still a minnow (<1% market share).  At these ratios it's pretty impressive that they can grow at this rate under their own cash flow with no borrowings.  IMO investing is essentially a bet on what market share they'll achieve in the medium term.  At 13% of industry inflows, this certainly looks like increasing but nobody can predict with any certainty what their future share (and their revenue) will be.  I value them at a range of different end game market shares and then make a gut call on whether they're value at current SP vs likelihood of achieving that share in the medium term.