Ann: Praemium H1 FY2019 results continue growth momentum, page-10

Some thoughts re results from a brief read ..

- Revenue up a modest 6.5% ... but this is despite the negative effect of the 4Q CY18 selloff.  Revenue will already be tracking higher with the rebound.
- Commissions down ... but offset by higher S&M costs
- Strong EBITDA growth of 19% - although partly driven by IT costs being down, then offset by D&A increase for IT spend (so not all realised in NPAT)
- Share schemes and Forex also pushed NOPAT down - these should be reversed in 2nd half.
- Anyone have details of the HK arbitration?  This seems to have dragged on - not sure if any revenue writedown risk??
- International business still negative EBITDA and not much improvement during the half.

Overall I reckon the second half EBITDA result will likely be a little stronger, but NOPAT much stronger.  For what it's worth, my guess is ... say extra + $1M EBITDA then + $0.5M share scheme + $0.2M FOREX + $0.5M Arbitration/restructure => ~$1.5M NOPAT in 2H or $2.1M NOPAT for FY19.

If markets continue to rise and PPS have a good half with inflows, maybe another $1M on top of this (big if tho).

Other's thoughts?