Tesla revealed its mass-market Model 3 in 2016. The company...

Tesla revealed its mass-market Model 3 in 2016. The company promised an affordable, $35,000 pre-federal tax credit price tag. Buyers went berserk. Tesla received about 400,000 Model 3 reservations, a number higher than Mercedes’ total U.S. sales in a year.

The Model 3 launch showed how strong the potential demand was for quality electric vehicles. Tesla’s struggles to meet that demand since highlight how challenging it is to produce an affordable EV. Tesla finally, sort of, got the Model 3 base price down to $35,000 this year, by stripping down the car among other measures.

We know gasoline is on its way out. We know, at least in the short and intermediate term, electric vehicles will be the replacement. What we’ve been waiting for is the “tipping point.” This will be the point where all manufacturers are bringing EVs to market. Component costs start to come down. Range and charging infrastructure grow to make mass market adoption convenient. The future materializes. We should come close to hitting that tipping point in 2020.

The luxury market will be a beachhead for EV adoption. Tesla’s success has terrified those companies into action. We’ll see results, beyond the already extant Jaguar I-Pace and Audi e-tron in 2020. Porsche is releasing its Taycan EV for the 2020 model year. Porsche already has doubled its production plans due to high interest and is reevaluating the gasoline future of its best-selling vehicle.