To regal's defense and others, two sides of every story ??
Example: The pricing that ALB achieved for 2018:
"Now let me move on to the business performance. Lithium ended the full-year with sales of $1.23 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $531 million, an increase of 21% and 19%, respectively, compared to 2017 and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 43%. Volume growth for the full-year 2018 was 10% and prices improved by 9%, driven by the increasing demand of our contracted customers for battery grade materials. Fourth quarter volume was strong with 14% growth compared to prior year and 25% growth sequentially. Average lithium pricing for the fourth quarter was 4% higher than the fourth quarter of 2017 and flat sequentially." - Scott Tozier, Albemarle Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer.
( Source: Albemarle Feb 2019 Conference Call Transcript )
Column 1
Column 2
Column 3
Column 4
Column 5
Column 6
Column 7
0
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Q3 2018
Q4 2018
FY 2018
FY 2017
1
Realised Selling price (US$/dmt)
900
975
893
928
927
783
( Source: Galaxy 2018 Annual Report )
The difference ? That graph that you showed is ( probably) non-contracted ( spot ) prices, while both ALB and GXY have contracted prices.
Forward to 2019, will prices be lower ?
Reduced margins in lithium chemical sales have resulted in a flowback reduction in the contracted price of spodumene for 1H 2019. Whilst contract prices are notably weaker than 2018, they have not reduced by the same percentage magnitude as the fall in Chinese lithium carbonate prices in 2018.Further, as a result of price volatility, Galaxy has adapted its price strategy for 2019 and has negotiated for a price reset during the course of 2019 rather than a 12 month fixed price.
( Source: Galaxy 2018 Annual Report )
So indications from Galaxy itself is that it will be lower, but not by the same magnitude as what has been reported. So my interpretation of that is that only slight lower, and now with the YOP, cash cost will be lower, which means GXY will be profitable ( and still debt-free ).
Now maybe a silly question that I hope someone else can answer: In 2018, the price was fixed for the entire year, so how did the realised selling price per quarter was different ? Did I misinterpret what "Realised selling price" mean ?
GXY Price at posting:
$2.17 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held