I like to talk about the company rather than its securities
but MPJO is certainly an interesting subject.!!
I do not want to put a positive or negative spin on MPJO's.
Options are a complex field. People specialise in them. Certainly there are people who are watching MPJO. Most of my money from the sharemarket over the years has been made in options trading.. which is a bit ridiculous.
The company has a very big interest in having options exercised. They sit back and collect the cheques. Easy. So the market perception of MPJ needs to be transformed quickly... for everyone's benefit.
Would two calendar months (May June) allow this to happen? Nothing is impossible.
A lot of smaller traders (and I was one of them) had/have crazy quantities. Look at the Sell queue quantities now. Even a 2,000,000 holding would require you to front up with $20k and 10,000,000 would require $100,000. Big cash money. So there is a sea of people/speculators who have no intention of sending in their cheques. They want to sell them at cost, or better... and not have them on 30th June. Sellers and lots of them. That requires a market. Buyers. There are none at present, on market.
I could talk for ages about MPJO's. Fast forward to Mid April when (at last) Li exploration begins.
I would expect no major (positive) drill results until then, setting aside Roe gold. So with two months to run to end-June, what would the Buy/Sell queue look like? Have a guess...
A positive announcement to a lot of people can mean an opportunity to unload MPJO quickly, even at cost... regardless. Downwards pressure on MPJO. Opposing that is the feel by the market that MPJ are onto something big and the SP has significant upwards pressure.. In principle that divergence is what can attract the options smarties like sharks.
With so many options around, excluding the recent escrowed ones, one could examine the interaction betwen MPJ and MPJO when the Options suddenly become viable... or in the money. Do the Options act as a brake on the SP then, as they offer an alternative way of getting MPJ's ie. you Buy them and Exercise. (after 30th June it is all irrelevant..)
... anyway....
One intriguing post... from tradezy
"They could look at what Esi did with regards to their options. The revised program saw them extend the expiry date in one sense with holders simply re-buying them at 001 with a newly imposed exercise price"
Interesting.... and maybe makes very good sense for MPJ!!!
If one looks at the scenarios (big Li announcement, no announcement) and anticipate what might happen, it can give some guidance ...with a bit of second-guessing as to what other MPJO holders might do. They are all in the same boat after all.
Cheers.
MPJ Price at posting:
0.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
