Ann: PGR Half Year Results Announcement, page-8

There a few things to consider here on negative and positive side:

Please provide feedback .. especially on the second half EBITDA number..

Negatives:

1. It is a newly listed company that has not performed to prospectus forecasts
2. Management has stated in FY 2014 that NPAT of 17.7 confirmed on the 28/08/14.. 3 1/2 months later trading update decline of 10-15% of forecast FY 2015 EBITDA .. Investors take this as management not being honest with the market or are not in tune with the business.. Either way its not positive.. Management integrity is important.
3. In today's report numbers are pretty much consistent with what was foretasted in Decembers downgrade the only significant change was the impairment.. However no FY forecast numbers presented or reconfirmed which is a concern to investors.. No trade update post Christmas. I own JB Hi Fi shares and either positive or negative they provide post report period update in their reports hence they have credibility.. If things are down they don't say nothing hoping for a turn around in business and report
downgrade when they have no choice...
4. How are they going to recover their last out look of 15 % worst case conveyed at the time = EBITDA of 28m that is 20m in the second half thats some recovery... Am i missing something here?????
5. Morgan Stanley were overweight with a price target of 1.45 where are their comments now??? Wait a minute didnt they manage the float....

Positives:

1. Its not a liquid stock so if the sediment is negative sharp reaction to downside.
2. At 55c a share valus the company at 137m x 0.55 = 75m .. NTA = 60m.. Seems cheap ..Lets say NPAT ends up at 10m thats 44% below prospectus EPS = 7c PE of 7.9 gain very cheap They have some good brands and cater for the fashion market that tend to spend women and children.
3. They have mentioned in several reports that they will perform better in second half .. Not sure if they make up point 4 in negatives.. but there could be something im missing..
4. No debt..
5. Div at 55c SP and NPAT of 10m and pay out ratio of 70% = 9% (please note my numbers are based on worst case scenarios)
6. Retail clothing in general has been significantly down on last year.. I have spoken to management in several well known retail brands (not listed) and they are saying they are down YoY... Hence market conditions come into play.
7. There is a large investor accumulating ... are they looking at take over?? It would be good if the directors were buying stock to indicate they have confidence..
8. Interest rates and petrol are coming more money in consumers pockets for spending..