Revising my previous $57m EBITDA forecast (see "ZEN vs PEA"...

Revising my previous $57m EBITDA forecast (see "ZEN vs PEA" thread) upwards to $60m and assuming the company will repay around $20m debt this year, I make fair value $0.65 on a prospective EV/EBITDA of 6x. The $60m EBITDA was also an underlying figure and we can only speculate as to how much "one-off" cost from the Contract Power acquisition will find its way into the half-year results.

Low valuation multiples are appropriate, I think, on the basis that PEA is (a) a very capital-intensive business that doesn't generate much free cash - a shade under $30m in total over the last 8 years, excluding acquisitions (b) debt-laden compared to prior years and (c) exposed to a downturn in minerals prices. Long term contracts with junior gold miners are useful only until the point the miner goes bankrupt.

To anyone buying into the low 80's thank you very much - there's a chance you'll take my holding.