PAR

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57.5¢ paradigm biopharmaceuticals limited..

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oxxa23

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18/12/18

21:39

Post #: 36899105
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Originally posted by 88888acct ↑

Ok so the results are possibly fine though it is really impossible to compare to others in the the OA space as the company has only released 50% pain reduction level results and p scores for 50 days and 36 days.

A more advanced competitor, Flexion has passed Phase 3. Their trial demonstrated efficacy advantages over saline-solution placebo for exploratory end points on multiple scales at weeks 4, 8, and 12 (all p < 0.0001!).

If we compare what PAR announced today at the >50% of 46% on iPPS, Flexion achieved 52.3% on drug >50% compared with 37.1% of placebo. Statistically significant benefit was achieved at week 12; p < 0.05 at weeks 1 to 16 and week 18). Paradigm achieved a lower response but also a lower placebo but without seeing averages or 60-90% level it's hard to judge which is more efficacious.
Also, I would want to see PAR reported/statistically significant at the 99% level.

In terms of clinical development pathway stages, by comparison, Flexion has passed Phase 3 and is at the NDA stage - sure it is trading at US$500 mill but that's expected given the cost ~US$100m, time (~2 yrs) and risk (42% chance of failure) to pass a phase 3; hence I think we are probably at fair value here based on what has been released. Then as I said earlier once more results are released or a deal is secured (a sign the results are derisked based on someone with an information advantage over us endorsing them by signing a cheque) then we may justify a materially higher market cap. I'll keep the faith for now.
Cheers, 8's

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PAR Price at posting: $1.50 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last 57.5¢		Change 0.080(16.2%)		Mkt cap ! $82.30M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
50.5¢	58.0¢	50.0¢	$753.7K	1.388M

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	3168	57.0¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
57.5¢	102000	2

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	47906	0.245
3	82048	0.240
2	32293	0.235
8	110599	0.230
7	89672	0.225

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.250	13363	1
0.255	34148	4
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0.270	19081	2
0.275	13636	2

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