I agree we can't rest on our laurals, but i see cobalt and tin...

I agree we can't rest on our laurals, but i see cobalt and tin as very different animals. cobalt was clearly a hype train and required the current production within the nickel mines to be coordinated and organised. they achieved that and pretty much have absorbed demand. Tin supply has been in decline for nearly 7 years with no cooling off of demand and a slump in production.

I'd also contest that no one saw the cobalt fall coming. Even i called that one and got destroyed for it many moons ago... and i stole my research from much smarter people then me. (but this is retrospective and clearly there will be 100's of traders/investors saying "I totally knew it"... so take it with a grain of salt).

While it can be said that indonesia has a habit of pulling the rabbit, the reality is that todays price reflects their price discovery as all the easy tin is goooone. Its now lower grade and less of it, according to reports.

So as a base metal i'm not concern on any major price movements. Sure there will be volatility in SN price as well as AUD/USD price but overall its basically tin isn't as common as you'd think and the alluvial stuff is all but run out. So my expectation would for it to hover around these prices for a long time coming.