I put my key thoughts here but summarised below for here....

I put my key thoughts here but summarised below for here.

Thought Update: PFS dropped today and it looks like the best of the bunch released by the ASX HPA hopefuls. Production rate was higher, CAPEX a touch higher (USD175m vs USD179) with initial thoughts whilst OPEX/AISC was lower (USD6.5k/t versus USD10k/t). NPV10 of USD506 (in line with peers but FYI assumed lowest HPA price), IRR of 46% (highest) and payback of 3.6yrs (lowest). The project stacks up strongly in economic terms. The key issue will the small mcap get investors excited or will it deter them as it makes funding seem hard. My valuation analysis suggests big upside from here (~$0.47/sh, discounted at 20%) even when factoring in ~200% dilution from here. If you can make 400%+ with that kind of dilution then that should prove a compelling investment proposition.

Valuation Update: Updated post PFS release. NPV of $0.47 using 20% discount rate with production of 8ktpa in 2023. The NPV factors in ~200% dilution from here (~USD69m of WC & project finance). If you can make 400%+ with that kind of dilution then that should prove a compelling investment proposition. Under the high case in the PFS, 10ktpa, NPV on same metrics is $0.54. I note that I use a HPA price of USD30kt as that is what I understand the be the current clearing rate in this very opaque market. I assume a LOM USD/AUD rate of 0.75. EV/EBITDA can be used for a company like this as it effectively is becoming a chemical company (steady production, pricing). FY23 EV/EBITDA, assuming 12x multiple (market average) and 20% discounting, valuation is a big $1.32. SoTP would be $0.89. Juicy but I won't use that as my target.

For the HC'ers: we know the numbers are big even when diluted  a bunch but I guess the question is it so cheap that investors a turned off because project funding looks too hard or will it re-rate as investors back the project thus becoming a self fulfilling prophecy that the mcap can fund it with ease?