well triage, as you know I am an eternal optimist, but even I am feeling a bit impatient with some of today's explanations.
Taken in itself the briefing was ok. Taken against past briefings, the inconsistencies were disappointing.
In past commentary, the pond design is good, and the seasonal variation in evaporation is not a big deal because the pond system would have sufficient inventory of concentrated brine to sustain production during the winter. If the plant is ever to achieve 17,500 tpa, the ponds have to be able to deliver a steady supply of concentrated brine all year round. Now we hear that the seasonality of evaporation was expected to impact the brine feed to the plant. I'm surprised none of the analysts chased that.
In past briefings, stage 2 could proceed independently of the LiOH plant. Now (presumably because the stage 2 project dropped the purification circuit) the stage 2 decision is contingent on the LiOH plant green-light. That was obviously a surprise to at least a few of the participants today.
Once it was back on the big picture stuff - the macro situation in the industry, the pricing trends, etc - it was all much more solid. I wish we could say the same for the operations.
On the positive side, they do have some additional harvest ponds coming in to service, crystallisers in testing (I would prefer more pond area and storage volume), and the CO2 recovery system in commissioning now. There may just be a chance that the stage 2 pond works will get stage 1 across the nameplate line. Roll on summer.
ORE Price at posting:
$3.35 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held