on macro fundamentals...2018 world Co prod 120ktCAGR demand to...

on macro fundamentals...
2018 world Co prod 120kt
CAGR demand to 2026 ~10% (as high as 15% in cobalt sulphate)
= 2026 demand ~250kt
Supply in 2020 ~150kt (mostly Glencore ramp up. 50% world growth in 4 years since 2016)
= Supply deficit as early as 2021, ex additional new supply (?) 
[DYOF, do your own figures!]

As others have said, the cobalt shark in the pond has set back all the noobs by flooding supply in the short term. But this won't last long, soon Glencore's massive supply will look insufficient to demand.

Two years is a very long time in the spec market. But the commodity markets will anticipate deficits, and won't wait for them.

What would a big fish do? Lots of ex-DRC new resources currently going cheap. Battery megafactories for EVs are specializing in NMC and NCA for the foreseeable future. Ethical materials still a faux concern in the media (prob b/c of Koch FUD, by the by). 

1000 junior explorers have spent the past two years searching the world for new cobalt deposits and yielded ... little. Future cobalt resources will be largely laterite based by necessity, but no one wants to pay capex for them yet. The low hanging fruit for now has been restarting/expanding current polymetallic projects, but this will peter out in the next few years.

In this respect Opuwo still looks good, and in three months the three month VWAP is going to be very low. The uncertain risks (metallurgy, opex) will be offset by potential upsides (resource growth, sulphide ore, ex-DRC), and the low cost to entry. A cobalt long term bull might see CLA as being finally at the "right price". The M&A action happens in the slumps, as we've seen recently.

Just trying to look through other's eyes. Probably 2020 for the next cobalt bull run tbh, thanks Glencore.