Originally posted by sandfire
@Scarpa ….Thanks for the post, always read your well informed posts with much interest. But I wish you would reconsider phoning management, and putting your views to them.
I guess one of the reasons why, is I am ok understanding the Anns and some of the technical issues within them and know management can't say much in any event when you call. So my concerns generally relate to timelines and technical process for addressing timelines, and many of those management can't say anything in any event as it would be 'new information' that they can only tell the ASX. And I wouldn't be expecting them to divulge confidential information btw, and from what I have read here when people talk to VA he has a lot of integrity when it comes to following ASX rules, which is positive here btw.
I have only ever contacted management in a share I own twice, many many many years ago, and on one of those occasions I'll just say they alleviated my concerns but it was the share I subsequently lost a lot of money on (they were cowboys and my gut feeling was the right feeling at that time as it turned out). I sort of work on an assumption in the spec end of town when your gut feeling tells you things are not moving along well then it is probably best to reduce your holdings or sell out altogether (and buy back when certain key milestones you think are important are met).
Whilst disappointed at the 2022 production date,especially been moved from earlier dates, I still think AVL has plenty of scope to enter the market even in 2022.
It would be good for AVL to explain why timelines have slipped and what it means for the existing MOU with WinWin, and that would be best for all SH as against those who make a phone call. Furthermore it would be best for AVL to provide some commentary on the following, where they can btw as in some areas they probably can't say anything, rather than a SH calling to yabber on the following (because I would have thought the Anns themselves could help in some of these questions):
1. Why did the PFS take so long to do, and why did that timeline slip? Further to this, why are cobalt/copper credits relatively low in the PFS and whether these credits are expected to increase over time - including in the DFS?
2. How has the oxidised layers affected the process flow sheets (where recovery rates are lower than the fresh layers)? (i.e I suspect this is probably the root cause for the delays in the PFS as the deposit itself is not homogeneous, or even close to homogeneous at different levels, meaning I suspect a lot of mucking around with the process flow sheet and costings itself and the NPV itself are behind the delays caused in the PFS itself. I am mindful in a IRR sense because the lower recovery rates are in the top layers you would have some sort of mine plan to reduce the impacts fo the oxidised sections on IRR btw).
3. Furthermore, how confident is AVL that the process flow sheet itself addresses the issues of the deposit itself at different levels through slight retweaking whilst not blowing out capex costs? Are the upcoming Met tests (page 15 of the PFS) are a basis for further increasing confidence levels herein for the DFS relating to recovery rates in the different layers of the deposit?
4. The PFS (page 16) talks about providing product samples as a means to facilitate marketing samples and downstream testwork/design? What does this actually involve - i.e. are you intending to send 98% Min grade samples or just product samples that the end buyers can do their own tests to get to the required 98% Min grade? Furthermore, what type of entities are these samples intended to be sent to, and has AVL been in discussions with these entities in the past? (I presume these are the entities that AVL will seek to get Offtakes with in future).
5. How advanced are the approval processes for the development relating to say the EPA process and native title etc? Are you expecting any delays herein? Are you intending to undertake these processes simultaneoulsly with the DFS? In terms of the environmental process, is your inkling the process will be moreso under the simplified process as against themore detailed 'projects of significance' EPA approach?
6. How is AVL to approach funding issues, and are they focussing on Offtake Agreements for equity? With the AVL production start date been out of wack with WinWin's own needs how confident is AVL that WinWin will ultimately be a buyer of vanadium from the project?
7. What are the possibilities for AVL and TMT sharing some infrastructure costs, such as in the gas pipeline?
8. Is AVL intending to speak to non-Chinese players (Europe)? What markets are they intending to target in steel (just China or Europe as well and Japan)?
9. In terms of the PFS, what Table 2 pricing scenario do they actually envisage prevailing at the 2022 start date, and furthermore what do they anticipate to be the demand/supply imbalance to 2025? Conceivably are they expecting to expand after production start date?
10. Relating to batteries, when do they expect to be entering that market given steel is the primary focus for 2022? Is the electrolyte facility anticipated to be a bolt on facility at mine site or that development done closer to Perth?
All IMO and not even sure why I wrote these questions. I guess I got into a frame of mind of what I would like to be answered in an Ann or what I might ask if I ever decided to call.
All IMO
(20min delay)
