Actually, it is the long awaited lift in yellow cake price that will save the day in the long run (and a few other companies as well). I think PEN is quite safe for some time yet at current prices, for reasons I am setting out below.
They are cashed up following last year's share issue and sale of supply contracts. They have debt facilities in place, should they need it. Sale of Karoo remains, albeit the net value is yet to be determined, but it does remove cash flow.
Is PEN exposed to spot pricing in any way?
We were told on 10 May 2017 that purchase contracts were in place for the delivery of 300,000 lbs p.a. through to 2020 at average cost of US$25/lb. This has since been reduced by 900,000 pounds between 2018 and 2020 (advised 1 Feb. 2018). In other words the entire suite of purchase agreements have been flogged off as part of the deal to sell supply contracts in order to gain $19M for working capital and redevelopment with a low ph process.
Hence, PEN is no longer exposed to spot pricing since it is fully dependent on production from Lance to meet its commitments under remaining long term contracts (unless those contracts are linked in some way to spot pricing - we have never been given details of pricing arrangements). We have been told (1 Feb 2018) that up to 6.6 million pounds of U3O8 remains under contract at an average price of US$51-53 per pound.
In fact, it is in PEN's interest for spot pricing to remain low so that if their production suffers further decline, they can pick up new purchase contracts at the low price for delivery against their long term contracts at US$51+/lb. It will not surprise me if they announce more such purchase contracts, preferring to keep as much of their ore in the ground as possible until they have a low ph solution in production (subject to any long term contractual conditions relating to supply from other sources, of course).
I am sure if there are flaws in my argument I will soon be advised by the rest of you.
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