I may be totally wrong here, but the impact of a farmout on...

I may be totally wrong here, but the impact of a farmout on intrinsic value may not be more than a couple of cents.  But of course the speculative value unleashed by a good deal with a tier 1 player, is impossible to guage, but could be a few multiples of the intrinsic value.

Let me illustrate with some numbers - which I hasten to add are all just my frivolous speculations.  (Say) we farmout 60% of gross leaving 32/8 as the remaining split for 88E/Bex - and that deal gives a $25m gross payment for back costs and a free carry on an appraisal programme covering further 3D seismic plus 3 holes up to test-flow status, to be completed by mid 2020.  And that the gross value of that appraisal programme is $125m.  Adjusting for currency (at say 72c exchange rate, and for working interest, 88e has 25*0.8/0.72=A$22.2 for the back costs and 125*0.32/0.72=A$55.6m for the appraisal program value...with the two combining to approx A$78m.  On a 5.8b SOI base that is 1.3 cents per share.  A tad less if the SOI is larger due to the placement of RI shortfall shares.  Double my guessed numbers and you get 2 or 3 cents per share.  This is the 'look through' instrinsic value of a farmout deal.

But a funded aggressive appriasal programme over a tight 1-2 year timeframe to potentially unlock 900m bbls nett to 88E, just for western fairway conventional is a major step towards unlocking the upside potential of US$3-5 per bbl of remaining asset. I can not guess what the speculative value of that, placed onto the SP, will be on farmout announcement date....and the ensuing months.

All IMO.  GLTA.