Seems like this is essentially saying there is too much feedstock for downstream product demand.
Maybe, but perhaps that conclusion about downstream product demand is a bridge too far at present. Initially, if LiOH demand is strong and growing, it is more likely to be about being too much for processing capacity
ORE's low grade carbonate will compete directly with Chinese Qinghai brine carbonate as feedstock for LiOH processing - carbonate vs carbonate being processed in a carbonate to hydroxide process plant.
ORE's low grade carbonate will compete with spodumene only to the extent that the hydroxide market is fully supplied and some capacity is idled somewhere. Assuming LiOH finished product demand is still strong, the first place that you might see that is where an organisation has both carbonate to hydroxide process and spodumene to hydroxide process capacity and may play one against the other if their order book is not full - for example if their spodumene plant is ramping up faster than they have taken on sales commitments - in which case the feedstock prices should reflect the relative processing costs.
At the moment, it is probably a lot more of the former than the latter. As ORE themselves pointed out in the last quarterly Some additional lithium carbonate volume also entered the market from the brine producers in the Qinghai region with an aggressive pricing approach at seemingly unsustainable levels. This additional volume at marginal prices has had a direct impact on spot market prices within China and a flow on effect to some customers outside of China who have downstream exposure to the China market. The Qinghai region has historically experienced reduced lithium carbonate production levels through the imminent winter season and it is expected that this will be the case again this year.
My only caution on that is that "seemingly unsustainable" is often sustained for a long time in Chinese industries.
ORE indicated in the webcast that they have very little material earmarked for sale to the Chinese LiOH producers in the next quarter.
ORE Price at posting:
$3.00 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held