Ann: Oil production in Oklahoma and Kansas grows , page-20

re: Ann: Oil production in Oklahoma and Kansa... @Sharejon

Nice post. Looks like most agree. One thing though.

"Balder was a beastly well, but it was likely a higher-case anomaly, so even a decent result with this second Range well will be positive news."

Balder may well have been freakishly good, but I suspect we will see more wells towards the Balder end of the spectrum than towards the averages that are often quoted.

Have a look at the latest Mississippian update by Range:

http://www.rangeresources.com/rangeresources/files/5f/5f8340fc-d702-449e-b2fd-19c2fd8c5004.pdf

In particular Pages 3,4, and 5:
- Page 4 shows that most wells east of the Nehaha uplift are classified as oil wells. Obviously everyone wants an oil well
- Page 5 is more interesting showing that the commulative production per well in some counties are significantly higher than others. Kay wells have over 5 times the production as Pawnee / Payne. Kay wells are about 50% better than their nearest rivals in Noble and Osage.
- Page 3 shows the reason why: The thick Chat on the uplift has much higher porosity giving both better production rates and EUR. By this logic Kay / Noble wells on the uplift should even out perform the average for their state.

So guess where AOK / Range are drilling...Kay County on the uplift!

I'm not interpreting Cumulative production as EUR because wells are still producing. So if the wells in Kay are older wells, they would have higher Cumulative production than a newer state to the play. That said it does look like Kay wells are producing more oil.

If you agree with my logic and you also own RFE / SEA then perhaps apply the logic to them also. SEA have not given much detail. RFE's best well has been on the eastern aspect of Noble which would be epected given the above vertical well data. Unfortunately their drill program seems to be heavily weighted on counties with low cumulative production - perhaps that explains their less than spectacular results.

Eagerly awaiting the result of the second lateral. I think AOK is a screaming buy.