RXL 0.00% 15.0¢ rox resources limited

Ann: Offer to acquire Reward Zinc JV Interest,RXL-IMI.AX, page-43

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  1. 1,378 Posts.
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    OK - had a bit more of a think about this offer. Some of the comments about backdoor listings into a worthless shell with existing shareholders being diluted to the Whazoo seem to be common. Need to have a look at what we actually do know:

    1. The Teena orebody is there but it is deep - almost Admiral Bay deep, we are talking very lengthy declines or serious shaft sinking to even get anywhere remotely near the orebody, the nearest mill to treat the ore is only 8km away but owned by someone else, and a big player at that (Glencore) or someone will have to build a standalone mill on-site which is also big $$ to be spent. Don't get me wrong - its an alright orebody once you are there - the economics should stack up but it won't be making anyone a quick fortune.

    2. Teck are already at 51% ownership of the Reward JV and only need to spend $2.5 million to get to the 70% ownership level - now we would expect that Teck have their own agenda (and possibly their own problems and decision making criteria) but they would know that this is all just pocket money compared to the cost of constructing and bringing this into production.

    3. We should know and expect that Zn prices will run in the future (but we don't know if the RXL share price will run with it.) - think of the timeframes to bring this thing into production if absolutely everything goes according to plan we are talking 1-2 years for a granted mining lease from the NT government (after Enviro and native title etc approvals), and thats before you can even be thinking of actually starting either an epic undergound decline and/or a haulage and ventilation shafts, then after 1-2 years of that you are close enough to drill the orebody from underground and get a better grip on the exact ore geometry (if required) and all the while you have to either do a deal with Glencore to truck the ore to Macarthur River or build a mill near Teena, plus construct a camp + airport and establish services such as power/water etc. Remember someone will have to borrow money or spend existing funds to build all of this, Teck are massive and have a proven ability to find/permit and construct resource projects throughout North and South America.

    4. So now we have this strange complex and strange transaction where existing RXL shareholders get consolidated and then pay to be diluted and dumped into a worthless shell with the existing management for some reason that not entirely clear. If its to tie up existing shareholder value in complex corporate shennanigans in a trading halt while the share price should be allowed to trade up along with the price of Zinc then I count that as a success. If its to somehow bock or frustrate Teck from picking up the RXL Reward JV interest then I don't see how that is acheived. If its an attempt to get Teck to hurry up and "do something" then can we assume that the "something" is to make Teck pay a fair and reasonable price to completely own all the assets in the Reward JV?
    Last edited by eastwest101: 21/07/16
 
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