I’m not sure I get your points about premature drilling. Putting DW aside for a moment, and being absolutely objective about it - everything has more or less gone to plan, except of course for 2 out of three drilling outcomes.
Laughable as the last bit of that statement sounds, just indulge me for a short while. I think the understandable emotions being suffered by long termers in particular, are conflating controllable decisions with uncontrollable outcomes. We can and should hold our directors to account for the decisions that they make, but not through the rear-view mirror. Not many of us have a great score card in anything when evaluated with the benefit of hindsight. For instance when to buy and sell this stock. But evaluating directors on the decisions they make, at the time of making them....well yes, We can and should. Either through our votes at general meetings or by buying/selling the stock. However, holding directors to account for adverse geological outcomes in a geological uncertain and unknown environment (aka exploring) is pointless. How do you measure someone for something they don’t or can’t control? I understand the desire to have someone held accountable for adverse outcomes....but that’s more emotion rather than rationality.
When I first stumbled on this company in late 2015, their plan was to chase unconventional in the HRZ. That was it. Potential conventional slowly entered the narrative after IW1 as a possible icing or a means to an end, and only became a reality (in terms of sizeable prospectivity) after some 2D seismic and then later uprated and better defined with more extensive 3D seismic and now further enhanced with additional inversion processing of that 3D seismic. No drill bit in the ground till properly assessed with up to date seismic. Just as it should be. We now have a huge series of conventional prospects that need time and dollars to exploit. More time and dollars than we envisaged not so long ago, because...we had no idea of this possible prize. And more dollars than we have. So we need to wait and FO, unless we can get our hands on some windfall moolah.
Meanwhile the main game, the HRZ, was pursued exactly how PB envisaged. No seismic could unlock the secret to wether the source rock was in the thermal maturity sweetspot with the right porosity, permeability and cap rock and seal. We had to drill the first science hole and try and prove or disprove the 4 Achilles heels. If we survive this so called “fail fast” stage, then we proceed cleverly. Firstly to learn how to get it to flow, and then to step out and test the extent of the sweetspot. Obviously with top line and bottom line dilution to fund that journey. PB was key in designing IW2 and the flow test plan with his octogenarian expert. We had the best brains on this. It didn’t flow in the summer of 2017and we went into winter hiatus to try new things in 2918. Still learning, mind you. This wasn’t sinking yet another hole in the Permian or Marcellus where thousands had preceded us - it was pioneering stuff. The first to frack the HRZ. It was a learning process and WIP. Rarer for a publicly listed minnow Explorer, and its retail investor base.....but that is where we were. And then the sad, sad loss of PB between the 1st and 2nd 2V flow test attempts. It may or may not have had an impact on results at 2V, but that is just academic. There is no BoD decision that can replace the irreplaceable.
So 2V, after 2nd attempt failed to flow and was suspended with sidetrack/horizontal flow test provisions in place within the permit. Till when? Till the BoD has a credible plan to justify spending shareholder money. They have engaged Baker Hughes (no small outfit) to independently validate the science gleaned so far from IW1 and IW2V so that we the owners can have some confidence in what we have...and for prospective investors (namely farming partners) to potentially ease a couple of degrees of uncertainty. Again, huge dollars and time required here, so we need to wait and FO, unless we can get our hands on some windfall moolah.
That’s two big potential prizes that have been slowly and methodically put together and dressed up for funding, over the last 3+ years. Now waiting for their respective FO, unless we can get our hands on some windfall moolah.
it would be nice if the BoD could place a couple of small little bets on the side to help us potentially win some windfall moolah. Not too much money, and not too much of a distraction from the twins in the main game, Oh Wait. Perhaps WB and YG were exactly that. Nice little side bets as a potential means to an end, but not the main show. First bet on WB has not paid off. Disappointing. Perhaps moreso because it felt like the main show rather than the sideshow it really was. Let’s see if the second bet has legs. Better still let’s see if funding for either or both of the main prize pursuits, have legs. Sooner rather than later.
Anyway, we are where we are. As much to do with decisions made and with reality unfolding. Not with the results we dared to dream of, yet, but not with any real dent in what the future could hold. But it has been an ultra marathon through the most testing and adverse conditions for retail investors, and paper losses hurts almost as much as real losses once hope has departed. And losses here for many are life impacting. For me too. And the scale of the rewards, if everything was to be successful from here on in, are likely to be less (per share) than many originally contemplated, and also much further away. Simply a product of adverse/sub-optimal results at 2V adding more time and dilution than would have otherwise happened. Larger conventional prize, if realized, could offset to some extent, but not till we know that its pursuit is funded.
For me, the FO is critical. Time to get back to the Icewine main show and let any side bets churn in the background...not as the main event.
Very sorry for what has become a long ramble. I hear the pain in many posts and I share it as it resonates with my own experience and situation. I am not where I expected to be at this stage of my investment here. But I feel that I need to be objective and rational to see my self through this. GLTA.
Back to that bottle of red.
88E Price at posting:
1.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
