Hi Maigret10% chance of a 50% fall, due to takeover failing,...

Hi Maigret

10% chance of a 50% fall, due to takeover failing, from 32 cents to 16 cents, or 32-16*0.1 = -1.6 cents
90% chance of a successful takeover @ 37 cents - current price 32 cents, or 37-32*0.9 = 4.5 cents

Or to define it differently, i have a coin that flips heads 3 times for every 1 tail (3:1). If you believe the probabilities above are true, keep buying as the price should be closer to 35 cents

35-16*0.1 = -1.9 cents
37-35*0.9 = 2 cents

but on the current price the probabilities are closer to 25% fail, 75% succeed

personally, i bought @ 31.5 cents today. As per NST & EVN, who ever has the mill/ processing centre in the area has the natural advantage to aggregating the mines in the local area to supply throughput for their mill. Chengtun has the EW/SX plant and would be keen to lock in a secure supply for the next decade