The Dragon has 100ktpa spare separation capacity at home, why...

The Dragon has 100ktpa spare separation capacity at home, why would they invest in an expensive greenfield OS??? Do punters think they are stupid?

Shenghe have put their foot on NdPr deposits OS to establish a concentrate feed back to the Motherland, and they'll control price to the point it will never warrant investment in separation facilities. As you suggest, when well established they will probably then mop up cheap equity.

As to Dy stockpiles checkout last years action, there were two rounds previous year and rumours another pending:

"January 19, 2017, the total volume of rare earth state reserve more than 2,000 tons .....Dysprosium oxide tender price 1.25 million / ton, the number of 440 tons"

"March 28, the State Reserve bidding total about 3,000 tons.....dysprosium tender price of about 1.25 million / ton, the number of 450 tons"

"May 27, the latest round of Rare Earth State Reserve bidding has ended, the total bidding more than 3,000 tons.....dysprosium tender price of about 1,243,000 yuan / ton, the number of 520 tons"

https://news.smm.cn/news/100773720

1410t DyO was mothballed 2017 out of an available 1076t net inventory, while obviously much of the 1410t purchased into storage was "illegal" poses the Q, just how tiny is true DyO demand?

Certainly wouldn't be rushing to produce more of what China has so obviously got way too much of already, and regardless, tiny little business, why would you even bother.

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/dy-r-i-p.4008991/?post_id=30931531#.Wp3FSmpuZhE