Welcome Christopher, didn't pick you as part of the Antiochian.
"As the author of the said report", Just for clarification, have NTU commissioned or requested you to discuss your opinions on Hot Copper?
Nuts and Guts of NTU is that they were going down the path to build a 10x size plant.
Why did they change their plan? SIMPLE answer from NTU pilot plant "is in response to the current rare earth market which has seen the lowest rare earth prices in years"
Would they have changed their plan if Dy prices were still at speculator pumped levels?
Why did they choose a 1/10th of the size? Why not 1/2 or 1/3 or a 1/4 If one looked at Australia's R&D terms in regards to turnover I think this answer lies within.
Quiet possible as to why they negotiated the 10,000,000 to be paid up front in (sales agreement JFMAG) this financial year.
Unlike yourself I am an Australian tax payer, who in an around about way are paying in part for this project.
I think NTU are VERY in-tuned as to how they can extract every single nickle and dime out of the Australian Gov/Tax payer.
Lets say a spend of 55 mil, return R&D 43.5% = 23.925 mill return,/ 43.5% return on 23.925 mil = 10.4 mill / 43.5% return on 10.4 mill = 4.524 mill.
So out of $55,000,000 one could potentially over 3 years see a rebate of $38,849,000 and that would be a little more than 70% as long as you keep your turnover under the R&D guidelines. (maybe the reason for the 1/10th size plant)
"Stage one expected to be funded by strategic investors and offtake partners on attractive terms" I think they forgot to add the tax payer.
I look forward to seeing how close you are to the mark of a 25 million R&D rebate for 2018.
In time all will be revealed as to whether or not NTU can be commercially viable, but as for the pilot plant from their own paid financial advisor Argonaut July 17 research notes, the pilot plant including the R&D rebate and at today's (July 17) prices may break even.
IMO NTU are running a venture that will be more than half paid for by the Australian Taxpayer, a venture that will run at a loss unless fingers and toes crossed Dy prices can appreciate greater unsubstantial levels again, whilst at the same time unsold Dy is being purchased and stored by the Chinese Gov and RE separation plants have wound back their rates of separation, and then on another hand Dy is being designed out of certain applications, and even replaced by greater amounts of Ce, and minimised in other applications.
Is there an economical market for more players in Dy going forward? If yes, why are the Chinese not selling all of their Dy product even with their wound back production.
To quote G Bauk from back in June 2017
"People in the magnet industry have talked about back calculating of what they can afford of Dysprosium going into a permanent magnet UM and thats about 700 US a kilo".
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