Ann: Northern Star makes $150M offer for 49% stake in EKJV, page-58

Agenda?

Why not just look at facts.

NST profit after tax for FY 2018 of $194 million from 575,121 ozs of production.

NST’s share of EKJV production for FY2018 was 136,248 ozs or 23.7% of FY2018 production.

The EKJV has historically been the lowest cost of the NST mines and so therefore would have represented at least 23.7% of the $194 million profit. ie about $46 million or probably more assuming historic averages.

The day before the Pogo acquistion announcement NST had approx 613 million shares on issue and traded with a closing price of $6.96 for a market cap of ~$4.27 billion of which NST’s share of the EKJV would have been supporting approximately 23.7% of this value (based on production) or $1.01 billion.

Now Bill says that an offer for the other 49% of the JV is fair at $150 million when the true value based on the value of his own company is closer to $1 billion.

What is the basis for claiming this offer is fair to TBR and RND shareholders in a public announcement? it is certainly not the value of his own company. I am a TBR shareholder and I want to know the basis for his statements to ensure that I am not being mislead by this gentleman and that if the assets are acquired they are indeed being acquired for a fair and reasonable price.

IMO the statement about the offer being fair is either misleading to TBR and RND investors or a reflection that the market for the company that he runs is significantly overvalued. NST on the basis of this valuation should have been valued closer to $658 million than the $4.27 billion, prior to the Pogo acquistion if this valuation is correct (based on each of their projects contribution to production). I’d need to do another calculation if I’m basing values on resources/reserves but I’m sure even Bill would acknowledge the excellent reserve replacements achieved at that project and also the consistent resource reserve conversion. The mine has been replacing reserves for about 20 years.

So which is it, has he issued a misleading statement to the market or is his company grossly overvalued?

Maybe Bill should be explaining the valuation so that us TBR and RND shareholders can understand how it was derived and how fair it actually is.

If EKJV is only worth $300 million, it’s time you run that number past your own accountants to make sure you don’t need a write down of your assets. I haven’t checked. What is the current carrying value of Kundana? It would probably surprise anyone who cared to check because I doubt it supports a $1 billion market value.

Time to come clean with the NST story I say. Esh