I do understand and the timetable is quite clear, I know that if people didnt buy today they will not be listed as holders as of 5pm on 9th Feb, and that the trading of the shares go ex tomorrow meaning that anyone who purchase tomorrow are not entitled to the cr.
As I said the dumping of the shares in my experience happens a day or two after they go ex so that is why i picked Wednesday, yes they could fall tomorrow, Monday or Tuesday, the sp could even hold out a little longer.
The cr will dilute the stock by about 50% (currently around 240m shares on issue, sp shares of 120m). Some who hold currently and get cr shares will want to make a profit, so they will sell down and take the profit.
Now I am not sure how low they are willing to sell down but once it starts to fall this will frighten others into selling.
DYOR
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