From Deutscher Bank research, Copper Plotting a path to $8000/t...

From Deutscher Bank research,
Copper Plotting a path to $8000/t
Global copper mine supply expected to contract again in 2018
With the majority of Q1 production results now reported, the outlook for copper mine supply in 2018 has deteriorated. After adjusting for disruptions, we forecast global mine output to fall just under 1% y/y in 2018. This follows a similar decline in 2017 and 1% growth expected in 2019. The last multiyear phase of stagnant mine supply was in 2010/11, when prices peaked just above USD 10,000/t. Current demand dynamics suggest such levels are less likely in this bull market, though our projected steady price path higher could be materially accelerated by certain supply-side developments. We currently forecast LME copper to average USD 7,300/t in H2-18 and USD 7,500/t in 2019. Western investor positioning remains light with potential for material additive long-side deployment.