"don't know what's going wrong" – hmm... do you mean "wrong" with the product, or with the business (i.e. share price)? There are issues with each:
- The clinical trial by The Carrick Institute didn't provide sufficiently strong evidence to support a submission to the FDA, so this potentially re-rating development is off the table. Neurotech has no plans at present to continue pursuing FDA approval.
- In fact the Carrick clinical trial produced only weakly positive results. The results were a long way from the rhetoric used at the interim results presentation made in the UK in September, 2017 where Dr Carrick claimed "many of the children with autism scoringin a normal range after the treatment". The vast gulf between that claim and the eventual reality would explain why neurologists are not falling all over each other in a scramble to do their own trials and replicate the results. The published paper attracted a lot of readers but appears to have received no citations.
- Although serious marketing has really only just begun the price of the unit is a serious barrier. Neurotech has addressed this by developing a different business model. It will be some time before the effectiveness of the new business model can be determined.
- There is a highly dilutive capital raising under way through a renounceable rights offer of one new share plus one option for every share held. This will double the number of shares on issue if all rights are taken up, and if the options are exercised then there will be three times the number of shares on issue. My guess is that the fully diluted share price will settle at under 2c. I believe that some dilution has already been priced in, but that more is yet to come.
- It's pretty clear that there have been problems with senior management at Neurotech. This has been addressed with the exit of Dr Wolfgang Storf and return of Dr Adrian Attard Trevisan, and the appointment of Dr Peter Griffiths (no, not from Family Guy!) as CEO and MD.
I exited (at a substantial loss) when Neurotech announced that it was abandoning it's current approach to the FDA. I'm waiting to see how the dust settles from all these issues: change of personell, change of business model, capital raising.
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