re: Ann: NAB reaches agreement with AXA and A...
Yes we should get better dividend with all the profits NAB is making from its business, but it looks like the money will go to AXA purchase instead. And given that the integration will also cost money NAB estimates that it will take few years before we see any positive on the bottom line from this purchase. And if they have to issue more shares to help to fasciliate the takeover, it would be dilutive and negative to share price, other things being equal.
Of course other things never remain equal. You now have more shares on issue and less money in the bank but have more assets that should be making you money. So long term it might be good strategy if it comes of and you increase your income from being the biggest private super provider in the country. Income increase is by no means guaranteed. For start the people who come with AXA may choose not to remain with NAB. I believe a lot of them are independent financial planers selling AXA product, not employees. Independent financial planers will go with whoever gives them the highest commission. But NAB does not want to pay them more, that would mean less money for NAB. Government already put super providers on notice that it is not happy with the high costs of the "for profit" super funds. In this they have support of people who are unfortunate enough to be in this "for profit" super schemes. The way they see it, is that the providers make profit and there is very little left for them. Government promised to order the super funds to mend their greedy ways. It remains to be seen if they succeed. But they going to interfere and that always costs money, at least initially.
I still maintain that NAB needs AXA like a hole in the head. Normally companies take over others to make financial gain for themselves and their shareholders. Sometimes the whole thing turns into disaster and I fear that this may be the case with NAB and AXA. ATM market is positive on NAB and SP is going north. Maybe the current share holders are more comfortable than I am with the proposed deal. Some of us still hope that ACCC will disallow the deal. Future will tell.
NAB Price at posting:
$28.00 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held