Yes sorry I wasn't clear on that, the 200ktpa was Spodumene Concentrate;
Cannacord
We note that the deposit remains open at depth within the main pegmatite (Dowling pit), suggesting the potential for further increases in the resource. GMM are expected to commence resource extension drilling programs later in 2016. However, we don’t consider the project to be resource constrained with Reserves sufficient to support a ~10 year project life, while further conversion of Inferred resources could see an ultimate mining inventory supporting +15 years of production at the proposed production rate of 800ktpa.
We highlight the optionality offered by the potential to expand plant capacity and production. Noting that the project is not resource constrained (current assumed mine life of 15 years), and with the likelihood of relatively low capital costs to expand the plant, we see clear potential for enhanced value for the operation should production be increased. We note that any expansion would be reliant on sufficient market demand for spodumene concentrate, but noting current and expected tightness in the spodumene market, an expansion could be a distinct possibility in our view.
On this basis, we have also modelled an “expansion case” for Mt Cattlin, whereby plant throughput is increased 60% to 1.6Mtpa, lifting production to 208ktpa of spodumene concentrate. In this scenario, we have assumed expansion capex of A$45m (consisting of upgraded crushing circuit, additional fines recovery capacity and TSF expansion costs), starting 1H’17. An expanded project would lift our project valuation (NPV10%) 44% to A$364m.
GMM Price at posting:
29.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held