re: Ann: Mosaic Oil Receives Proposal to Acqu... mophead - the...

re: Ann: Mosaic Oil Receives Proposal to Acqu... mophead - the cash sitting in the account of MOS, stays in the account of MOS.
if AGL succeeds in getting 100% of MOS shares, then it can do what it likes with the cash.
the only way s/h can get access to that cash is if the directors of MOS distribute it to s/h by way of dividend, capital return etc.
and they simply will not do that! for all sorts of reasons eg AGL bid would be conditional upon MOS retaining that cash, and MOS needs that cash to continue drilling programme.

And thats one of the issues here.
After sale of PNG, MOS has cash which is equivalent to about 4c per MOS share.
SO a bid at 15c only values the balance of the MOS assets at 11c per share!
So AGL are getting a bargain!

There are a number of important issues IMHO:
1. AGL want the MOS reserves (which are significant and undervalued)
2. i think they also want the Gas Storage project also
3. AGL already have tied up 12.8%
4 that means that some big s/h believe that 15c is acceptable.
5. I THINK THAT AGL CAN, AND PROBABLY HAS, ACQUIRED MORE MOS SHARES ON MARKET AT BELOW THE BID PRICE TODAY!!!!
6. so far this morning about 4% of issued capital has been traded.
7. the higher the AGL stake, the lower the chances of a counter bidder
8 *** we do not know what the conditions of the pre-bid agreements are !!!
9. the pre-bid agreement may allow the seller to accept a higher offer. so the 12.8% which AGL holds may become a mirage if a counter offer arises.
10 if you think the 15c is low - then you can blame the pathetic history of the BOARD !

AGL will get a bargain, but we s/h are so dis-heartened that most will accept.

cheers