Yesterday's bauxite price for Canyon grade was US$69 per tonne.
There is no allowance for freight in these calcs yet as we do not know destination. The destination could in fact be mixed as Canyon will have a premium niche product. Their bauxite could well be used to average up grade of inferior products mined elsewhere. Freight in the Atlantic basin could be a s low as US$5, the gulf a little more and China approx US$15-20.
All the numbers are in US$ so add approximately 30% to get back to A$. In country taxis calculated but not royalties.
IMO, 10 million tonnes per annum will be the base case with a high probability of greater tonnage. All parties involved will want to make money so I would not be in the least bit surprised to see 20 or 30 million tonnes considered, if not immediately then at least as a stretch target.
The only reason I see for this not being $1 already is the perception of country risk. With regards that risk, firstly, I am happy to take it. Having been on the ground and seen a lot of the country my perception was that getting this project up and running was a matter of national significance. That message was reiterated numerous times throughout my trip. Also, a number of the senior staff on the ground in Cameroon have spent a large part of their professional careers in African jurisdictions and informed me that for them, in comparison to other parts of Africa, Cameroon was very stable. Furthermore, I would note that the rule of law with regard mining leases is very strong in Cameroon. Sundance Resources have been given a lot of rope to get their project up and a decade on still have a viable permit. (The biggest difference here is that the Sundance resource is ordinary whereas Canyon's is extraordinary).
The tonnage on this is going to grow, and given yesterday's data it will not take long. Decades of mining at or near the best grades in the world. What's not to like
To the holders, we are on a VERY good thing IMO. The 100 bagger would take a few years and need us in production at a higher volume but it is not impossible...just have to fight off TO offers and hang tough
