My 2021 upgrade of NGP1 to transport 160TJ/day looks...

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justinmetals

1,934 Posts.

17/04/18

22:20

Post #: 32511809

Originally posted by justinmetals ↑

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11 Column 12 Column 13 Column 14 Column 15 Column 16 Column 17 Column 18 Column 19 Column 20 Column 21 Column 22 Column 23 Column 24

1 TJ/day 90 90 90 90 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160 160

2 profit/PJ 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

3 DR 8%

4 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

5 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

6 TJ sales/day (100% to CTP) 12 12 54 54 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 PJ

7 PJ sales/yr 4.38 4.38 19.71 19.71 32.485 32.485 32.485 32.485 32.485 32.485 32.485 32.485 32.485 32.485 32.485 32.485 32.485 32.485 32.485 32.485 32.485 600.425

8 profit 13.14 13.14 59.13 59.13 97.455 97.455 97.455 97.455 97.455 97.455 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97

9 debt increases -26 -20 -20 -20 -20

10 debt -90 -116 -122.86 -129.72 -90.59 -51.46

11 debt paydown 13.14 13.14 59.13 59.13 51.46

12

13 cashflow after debt payment 45.995 97.455 97.455 97.455 97.455 97.455 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97

14 cashflow

15 interest -5.8 -6.143 -6.486 -4.5295 -2.573

16

17 Cashflow -5.8 -6.143 -6.486 -4.5295 43.422 97.455 97.455 97.455 97.455 97.455 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97 64.97

18 cumulative cashflow -5.8 -11.943 -18.429 -22.9585 20.4635 117.9185 215.3735 312.8285 410.2835 507.7385 572.7085 637.6785 702.6485 767.6185 832.5885 897.5585 962.5285 1027.499 1092.469 1157.439 1222.409

19

20 DF 1 0.925926 0.857339 0.793832 0.73503 0.680583 0.63017 0.58349 0.540269 0.500249 0.463193 0.428883 0.397114 0.367698 0.340461 0.315242 0.29189 0.270269 0.250249 0.231712 0.214548

21

22 PV -5.8 -5.68796 -5.5607 -3.59566 31.91647 66.32624 61.41318 56.86406 52.6519 48.75176 30.09368 27.86452 25.80048 23.88933 22.11975 20.48125 18.96412 17.55937 16.25868 15.05433 13.9392

23 cumulative NPV -5.8 -11.488 -17.0487 -20.6443 11.27214 77.59838 139.0116 195.8756 248.5275 297.2793 327.373 355.2375 381.038 404.9273 427.047 447.5283 466.4924 484.0518 500.3105 515.3648 529.304

24 NPV 529

25 IRR 90% SP @ 100% NPV 0.66

NPV = 0.66

Expand

My 2021 upgrade of NGP1 to transport 160TJ/day looks Conservative now given Jemenas latest talk of 700TJ/day $4B spend on NT pipelines!!

CTP Price at posting: 15.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

Upvote

0 Great analysis

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CTP (ASX) Chart

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7	Column 8	Column 9	Column 10	Column 11	Column 12	Column 13	Column 14	Column 15	Column 16	Column 17	Column 18	Column 19	Column 20	Column 21	Column 22	Column 23	Column 24
1	TJ/day		90	90	90	90	160	160	160	160	160	160	160	160	160	160	160	160	160	160	160	160	160
2	profit/PJ		3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
3	DR		8%
4		2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036	2037
5	Year		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21
6	TJ sales/day (100% to CTP)		12	12	54	54	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	PJ
7	PJ sales/yr		4.38	4.38	19.71	19.71	32.485	32.485	32.485	32.485	32.485	32.485	32.485	32.485	32.485	32.485	32.485	32.485	32.485	32.485	32.485	32.485	32.485	600.425
8	profit		13.14	13.14	59.13	59.13	97.455	97.455	97.455	97.455	97.455	97.455	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97
9	debt increases		-26	-20	-20	-20	-20
10	debt	-90	-116	-122.86	-129.72	-90.59	-51.46
11	debt paydown		13.14	13.14	59.13	59.13	51.46
12
13	cashflow after debt payment						45.995	97.455	97.455	97.455	97.455	97.455	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97
14	cashflow
15	interest		-5.8	-6.143	-6.486	-4.5295	-2.573
16
17	Cashflow		-5.8	-6.143	-6.486	-4.5295	43.422	97.455	97.455	97.455	97.455	97.455	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97	64.97
18	cumulative cashflow		-5.8	-11.943	-18.429	-22.9585	20.4635	117.9185	215.3735	312.8285	410.2835	507.7385	572.7085	637.6785	702.6485	767.6185	832.5885	897.5585	962.5285	1027.499	1092.469	1157.439	1222.409
19
20	DF		1	0.925926	0.857339	0.793832	0.73503	0.680583	0.63017	0.58349	0.540269	0.500249	0.463193	0.428883	0.397114	0.367698	0.340461	0.315242	0.29189	0.270269	0.250249	0.231712	0.214548
21
22	PV		-5.8	-5.68796	-5.5607	-3.59566	31.91647	66.32624	61.41318	56.86406	52.6519	48.75176	30.09368	27.86452	25.80048	23.88933	22.11975	20.48125	18.96412	17.55937	16.25868	15.05433	13.9392
23	cumulative NPV		-5.8	-11.488	-17.0487	-20.6443	11.27214	77.59838	139.0116	195.8756	248.5275	297.2793	327.373	355.2375	381.038	404.9273	427.047	447.5283	466.4924	484.0518	500.3105	515.3648	529.304
24	NPV		529
25	IRR		90%		SP @ 100% NPV	0.66

My 2021 upgrade of NGP1 to transport 160TJ/day looks...

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