"With RBA Gov'Lowe today strongly hinting rates are going up this year and Westpac today calling for 2 rate hikes within the next 6 months and commodity prices booming again the $AU is going one way.....and it áint down.
It will get worse for SDI, a lot worse."
@stocktraderman,
The irony might be lost on you that almost to the very hour that you where standing on the rooftops shouting out your view about the A$ going only
one way (that way being up), the currency checked, did a smart about turn and promptly went the exact opposite of up, i.e., down.
That's the problem with making investments in companies predicated on macroeconomic forecasts. As a case in point, you identified just two of the many (20, 30, or possibly 40) factors that determine the level of an exchange rate. And even those two inputs you've got wrong.
(Maybe what you should have done first is made an assessment of what Gov. Lowe's counterpart in the US's equivalent of our Reserve Bank was saying, and incorporated that into your forecasts for the A$ (at least you would then have considered 3 out of the 30-odd variables that determine the direction of the A$:US$).)
I've seen many an eminently-qualified economist, working for the most prestigious financial institutions, well-resourced with all manner specialist literature and supported by teams of similarly-well qualified deputies poring over extensive databases... and even they can't forecast macroeconomic variables accurately on any sustainable basis.
So what chance have mere mortals like little ol' you and I have of getting it right, eh?
Not much, self-evidently...
