Micky
have a look at the accounts of Antam / Vale PT etc - they are already waay under water .......
I did read an interesting article on the cylicity of nickel price swings - typically gets to 90% percentile to "wipe out" excess capacity.......
check the chart in the SIR scheme doco .....(re opex by producer)......
getting close I think - should see a few more "go to the wall" .....
rgds
V_H