Good question. For what its worth, this is what I keep telling myself.
1 mill users was always thrown around as a bit of a benchmark, and maybe it is still a benchmark of legitimacy. Important because these things go one of two ways. either its a neat idea, provides real commercial benefits, but on an individual level it just doesn't quite take off. The scale never quite gets there and it suffers a slow death despite it once being a great idea. Alternatively, it grows gradually and hits a certain scale that people realise that this is here to stay, and is a point of engagement where they are going to 1. engage, but 2. see increasing benefits and function. the momentum of users will at that point grow exponentially as the leveraged functionality and opportunity is apparent and seen as 'here to stay'.
To me i can't fault management and their continued growth, vision and success in building more and more angles to the company. And I do not think they are slow.
I just think that it hasn't quite hit the threshold point where people go 'yep this is where its all going to be in this space' yet. Everyone thinks it probably will be, but its still not big enough yet to be certain. Where is that point though when everyone says yep we need to be on this?
I think the question to ask is - could this company slip away to nothing?
I reckon at this point there would still be many who would say yes, its possible, and the value of the users are discounted accordingly. But I don't think we are very far away from the point where the answer will be NO. At that point then, I think it will go north. And the true value of the users will be priced in.
So much is built on perception and expectation.
Standing back looking at it from a market perspective, the company is clearly bubbling along very healthily, but it hasn't popped yet. that i think doesnt help the case, as everyone will say, ok it hasn't moved much, not dead certain yet, like the idea, I'll sit back and watch. On top of that inevitably there are those frustrated with what they see as a great opportunity, price not moving, creates doubt (which is a mind game in their heads only really as the rise hasn't been as fast as they enthusiastically thought - EXPECTATION - cause they loved the idea - and felt everyone else would too), sell a few but because there isn't yet real certainty and vigour in the market yet then there are aren't the buyers to mop up the sellers. A bit of a viscous cycle. That makes it just that much harder to convince the market of the long term legitmacy.
So to answer your question how to get it to go north, I think management just need to continue to do what they have succesfully done. Continue to bolt on angles, and build user numbers. At some point it will pop. We need to be patient.
Its a bit like the market is saying, "your a great player, but come back when youve got everything ready and your ready to play". More angles on the business and 1 million users, surely they will be ready to play.
I know I am not giving any great answer, but its how i try and rationalise it! Hope it helps.
I am a big believer in this company!!!
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Mkt cap ! $215.0M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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3 | 26030 | 0.330 |
1 | 100000 | 0.325 |
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2 | 29526 | 0.315 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.360 | 24455 | 1 |
0.380 | 50000 | 1 |
0.385 | 100000 | 1 |
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