...and just tying the numbers together - they've revised down...

...and just tying the numbers together - they've revised down fee-earning AUM from 4.25-4.75bn, to 4-4.25. Taking the midpoints of each, they've revised down from 4.5bn to 4.125bn.

That $375m downward midpoint revision in AUM is apparently the main driver in NPAT midpoint going from $35m to $22.5m, which is roughly an $18m EBIT hit at a 30% tax rate. Assuming the EBIT margin they make on upfront/equity raise fees drops down to EBIT at close to a 100% rate, it seems like the failure to raise ~$400m equity in mostly retail AUM is hitting EBIT ~$18m - again, assuming them not raising these funds is the only thing that's changed, the implication is they're taking ~4.5% ($375m / $18m) upfront on the way into their retail products. Ergh, good old retail funds.