DFS is solid but there are some flags. Opex as mick mentioned and the capex per ton is huge. With that said Worley are good and we can take heart that these are likely realistic numbers that can be kept to.
Despite the above issues if we look at the NPV of $940m US after tax assuming 50/50 debt equity this is encouraging. LPI has an EV after deducting cash and the exploration portfolio value of around $30m USD (A$40m) for 51% of the project. So an EV to NPV of 0.06x. That’s cheap. If I were a potential project partner the most logical route would be to buy out LPI and Bearing. Even if they offered 55cps, a massive premium to spot, the effective purchase price would be $185m USD for the entire project or ~20% of NPV. That’s less than what LSC went for recently. Whether management etc would sell at 55cps is a question, especially as they hold options in the 55c and 60c range. It would mean a 0 return for those of us who have held since then but a fair price imo given market sentiment. 24c however, is a great buying price
LPI Price at posting:
24.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held