SECTOR: "You are mixing up 2 things, Saudi Arabias social programs being funded by oil, and actual oil productions costs which can EASILY survive $40-50 oil"
Incorrect - I am not mixing up anything - Do you seriously believe Saudi Arabia will not try to stop (at all costs) the economic/ social bankruptcy that would occur due to sustained low prices and the possible civil unrest which would threaten Saudia Arabia's kingdom and ruling structure?
Like seriously - economic and social bankruptcy which is already starting to cause civil unrest in Saudi Arabia will end SA! But hey in Sector's mind - this isn't enough for SA to drastically change the status quo of low oil price so they can save themselves from such a bankruptcy.
This will also effect other OPEC countries who are facing civil unrest problems due to their economic/ social reliance on oil. They are not going to sit there and accept the status quo of cheap oil - trust me it's fairly simple logic.
--------------------------------------------------------- SECTOR: "Disagree entirely. Where do you think all those rigs have gone? and how many wells are "shut in" waiting for more economic times....(like your $60) min."
Incorrect - at its height in 2007 shale oil produced 5.62 million barrels of oil per day. Total world production of oil sits at circa 80 million. In other words shale (at its height) only represented 6.5% of total world oil production. Accordingly, Shale has not got enough production ability to even replace Saudi Arabia (10m BPD) - let alone all the other countries that will additionally economically bankrupt (and have civil disruption) if oil stays at circa $45 - $50 BPD. Venezuela is a good example of a country reliant on oil socially and economically and the civil unrest which can occur from sustained low prices.