(I'm not sure if my figures include Chi-x, ANZ's new 'upgrade' to the CMC system)
That's an interesting point, I had assumed the price spent more time above 3c, forgetting that the shares were issued in 2 tranches. Tranche 1 (~63mil) had plenty of opportunity to sell above 3c (the mining licence day traded ~50 mil).
Tranche 2 (~37mil) only had 4 days (16-19/7) at/above 3c with ~15 mil traded.
Between 2.7c to 3c had 11 days (20/7-3/8) with ~30 mil traded.
Below this volumes have been very low in general.
Obviously you can't assume all this was flipping, I would assume at least half though, you might be able to get a better idea from broker data but not sure it's worth the effort.
I assume most of the first tranche wanting to be sold has done so already, I think most of tranche 2 has been dumped already or these holders are waiting for a higher price to sell.
If the price can get toward 3c which I think may happen relatively easy once 2.5/2.6c is cleared, 3c may be a barrier more psychologically, with traders assuming selling pressure actually creating it and/or profit taking from those who bought low (a 2c purchase would be up 50% then). Should we be around 3c with first shipping announcement, hopefully the last of the flipping can be done on the news and we see 3c as a solid base moving forward.
Knowing that the oppies have traded relatively well so far and were offered 1:1 as part of the raise, I feel CR flippers would have felt comfortable selling a little below 3c and have either held the oppies or sold them also. Selling heads at 2.7c and oppies at 0.7c is over 10% profit which in this market of late is a great result.
to the CMC system)
