MTU 0.00% $12.17 m2 group ltd

Ann: M2 issues strong earnings growth guidance fo, page-21

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  1. 512 Posts.
    re: Ann: M2 issues strong earnings growth gui... Hey MM
    Let's assume 15% and 40% tax rates.

    Gain 2.18-1.75 = .43
    40% - pay tax .172
    15% - .0645

    So just to breakeven you need to buy back in at either 2.01 or 2.12.

    But wait it gets worse. You had 2.18 invested in the market earning returns. Now you only have 2.01 or 2.12 (ignoring the timing of tax which would improve the situation, but over the long run is trivial.)

    If the original unsold investment returned 10% over the next year, your new investment would need to return 19% and 13% respectively for 40% and 15% tax rates just to match it.

    Those are high hurdles to continuously leap over.

    Both prices may be hit, especially 2.12, but they may not be. Sure there are plenty of other fish in the sea, but my point is can you keep catching them and get to eat a better dinner.

    Finding good companies is incredibly difficult to do. I think MTU is one of those rare good companies, but I am wrong at least 30% of the time ;-) I plan on continuing to hold unless it gets very overvalued.

    Keep in mind this is not just a random run-up in MTU, it is based on earnings and forecast.

    YMMV - If you can keep making 25% returns in a few weeks, then you'll soon own MTU and then the world.
 
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