Believe the corner has turned for COF. The case in points are:
- No bad news in the previous results announcement and no warnings announced. Directors sold small block of shares due to tax reasons.
- Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne are all building large scale tunnels. In 2005, COF's Geotechnics revenue grew by $10 million after they had completed work on the Lane Cove Tunnel (this didn't include mining revenue because they were separate business units back then).
If Coffey are able to snare even 50% of the work over the next few years when these key infrastructure projects get built, we will be looking at a much healthier share price. Each cycle of road infrastructure keeps getting bigger and bigger with these projects significantly contributing to COF's bottom line over the next couple of years. We are entering into an Infrastructure building period that has not been seen in Australia before.
- How probable is it Coffey will win the work? Highly Probable given Lend Lease are in the final two of the Melbourne East-West contract negotiations. Given John Mulcahy spent 14 years there and COF are working on the Barangaroo site with Lend Lease. Other factors will contribute to winning work with the other construction firms building tunnels, apart from being one of the leaders in the industry.
- Restructure of Human Resources and Facilities combined to save over $10 million per annum in revenue
Believe COF is in a key market segment that is about to boom. Mining will weigh down to the tune of a couple of million per annum, however that will be small fry against the gains that will be made in the Infrastructure space.
As always, famous last words.
Best of Luck
Lost
COF Price at posting:
26.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
