COF 0.85% $1.19 centuria office reit

"Net debt stands at $61mill, down $8.6mill from the March...

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  1. 7,936 Posts.
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    "Net debt stands at $61mill, down $8.6mill from the March Quarter 2013"

    Yes, Dex, that's true on a prima facie basis, but one needs to delve a bit deeper in order to discern the true delivering forces at play.

    Specifically, there has been around $13m of non-operating cash outflows over the past 18 months ($9.8m to fund redundancy and restructuring, and $3.6m in relation to interest rate swaps that expired in February 2014) that need to be contemplated when looking at the rate of deleveraging.

    Adjusting for this $13m-odd puts the fall in net debt at an annual run rate of around $22m which, for context, compares with an Enterprise Value of $128m.

    By crude arithmetic, and assuming the current strategy of running the company for cash persists, that implies a EV-payback period of less than 6 years (compared to less than 4 years at the time I purchased the stock. So, still undervalued, if not egregiously so anymore.)

    Put another way, at the current rate for deleveraging, sometime within the next twelve months, NIBD-to-EBITDA is likely to get close to a level of 1.5x (was 3.0x for FY13 and for FY14 looks like it will be around 2.2x).

    I think that at a ratio of 1.5x, the banks start to take their foot off the company's throat and the board will be in a position for the resumption of dividend payments (bearing in mind the plus-$12m (~5cps) in franking credit.

    And again, all of this makes no assumption of any upturn in COF's business cycle; rather that things remain as tough and challenging as they have been for the past two years.
 
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Last
$1.19
Change
0.010(0.85%)
Mkt cap ! $755.6M
Open High Low Value Volume
$1.18 $1.20 $1.17 $486.6K 411.0K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
2 14634 $1.18
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$1.19 6124 1
Last trade - 16.10pm 22/11/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
COF (ASX) Chart
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