Interesting perspective you have on things mini-oil. You keep harping back to Yabulu reopening either by Clive, QPM or a 3rd party. I dont thats feasible. It is not modern enough and to make it up-to-date you may as well knock it down.
Clive iswaving around some draft contracts from the Port of Townsville. To me that wasnever going to be the issue. The port is underutilized and he only owes them$1m.
Thebigger issues here will be the $300m owed to other creditors and the environmentalliability he has. This all goes before the money required to get Yabulu up andrunning again. There has been speculation about the size of the environmental liability. See the article below about it being $93m to STARTcleaning it up.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04...kel-93m-environment-clean-up-revealed/7343640
TheQueensland Government says it will cost $93 million to begin the clean-up ofenvironmental damage at Clive Palmer's Yabulu nickel refinery in Queensland.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06...unces-plans-to-reopen-yabulu-refinery/9921390
WhenQueensland Nickel collapsed in 2016, it left debts of $300 million owing tocreditors and put more than 800 people out of work.
Lets sayhe does allll that. He also has the issue of ore supply. Clive isnt they guywho negotiated the Ore contracts for Yabulu. Current QPM management negotiatedthat. That's how they were able to negotiate these new contracts, they have alot of good will in New Caledonia. Clive is the guy who took over the contractsand didn't pay. So it is unlikely they will deal with him again. See below from administrators report.
4.3.6 Ore StocksOn appointment, the Refinery had limited overseas ore and NHC stocks for processing, resulting in the processing of lowergrade domestic ore during the weeks following our appointment. Effective operation of the Refinery requires at least two(2) to three (3) months’ ore on the ground to enable better management of refinery production and higher refinerythroughput (historically up to six (6) months stocks had been held at the Refinery).Upon our appointment, QN urgently sought to secure new supplies of imported ore feed. However, a critical NewCaledonian supplier refused to enter into new ore supply arrangements until the Administrators had committed tosatisfying pre-appointment debts of approximately USD$2.8M and agreed to pay for future supply in advance of loading.
This iseven before taking into account the fact that he called the mayor of Townsvillea bitch or the fact that the state and federal government hate him. I wonteven bring up one of the 7 Natural Wonders of the World.
https://www.townsvillebulletin.com....h/news-story/0b8ab04ec14a856f626905f4c19a589d
Realistically it is unlikely that Clive will getYabulu up and running again. I'd be stoked however if QPM were to positionthemselves strategically geographically near Yabulu.
Clive bought Yabulu when the Nickel price was depressed, made heaps of money on the nickel price rebound and him and the nephew ran it into the ground basically pillaging it for what it was worth. That is fair enough. He is a business man and making money is his prerogative. The nickel price crashed and mismanagement came back to bite him in the butt. Now Nickel and Cobalt are hot again and he wants another crack at it. I don't consider that to be likely
Originally posted by minoil
"Yabulu and QPM can coexist"......fun......somehow i dont think so. I really think Clives efforts to reopen will fall over, basically because he wants someone else to stump up the dough while he gets the glory.....
anyway, there could be any number of scenarios that present themselves from here on.....whilst i havent looked at this in much detail, it seems QPM are aiming high, with plans to build from scratch, its certainly not pie in the sky dreaming though. What i noticed was the fairly short time line in reaching some important decisions, which places pressure on both sides....
again, just from a quick overview, i can think of a few scenarios, of which, i'm certain you guys here could add to.....
* Clive restarts his refinery, offers a knockout deal to gain NewCal ore.....
* Clive fails, his refinery is dismantled.....
*QPM buy the refinery for a handful of beads and cloth in a liquidators sale, get a head start on their construction timetable...
*Clive buys out QPM to silence them
*Clive cannot restart, nobody wants to deal with him....refinery again, goes on the auction block
QPM, regardless, seems to have a slight upperhand, and, i'm certain there is more at play in the backgroundclear.png
whilst not holding atm, i found it was worth another look at the deal, and am beginning to suspect some long term thinking is in play.......i'd be very curious to see other folks views on all the possible outcomes
More in play in the background...... long term thinking? I think I know what you are eluding too. Interesting articles in the Townsville Bulletin this year about some of the work a Dr Fiona McCarthy did with Yabulu tailings... Encourage anyone interested to have a read.
