Ann: LCS Completes Full Ship Shock Trials-ASB.AX, page-5

I am trying to work out my valuation of ASB based on a complete closure of the US operations. I think this is almost a certainty after 2020. Too much political pressure and Alabama being a Republican State, it is going to suffer big time post election.

Profit will need to come from:

PPB - maybe $1.5 mill p.a.
OPV - maybe $15 mill a year
Ferries - perhaps $5 mill p.a.
Support - big variance in outcomes possible here but at a guess $5 mill p.a.

NPAT - $26.5 mill x PE 12 = roughly $320 million.

So in short, needs a few wins in the systems side of the business. This is quite likely but not certain (as I think someone is very anti-Austal in the Pentagon) so I think ASB is still a hold but tough to find huge upside.

Also, at least a 12 month wait for any (unlikely) change in the fortunes of the US operations.