Here is a DCF of the Fortress / Bentham IMF Funding Vehicle or SPV, based on loose assumptions.:
i)That the SPV will maintains customary operating spread that IMF-Bentham has maintained through 2010 to 2016.
Spread (Return on Cap less WACC)
ii) That SPV builds up roughly the same size book in the US's Bentham Capital LLC & Bentham IMF Capital Canada as it is closing in IMF - Bentham Australia, for 2017, 2018, 2019 and that growth thereafter equates with 2010-2016 growth in "sales" in IMF-Bentham internationally.
This is a conservative est. as based on the assumptions only ►AUD◄ $83 is drawn into operations. FCF (2017) $4.2 (2018) $20.1 (2019) 59.3
When the SPV has created allowance for up to USD $200 (AUD $ 266,67 m)
So be it.
iii) The Fortress SPV sees a Fortress LLC achieve a risk return in its Capped Priority Return and its Preferred Return that increases IMF-Bentham's overall WACC by at least 200 bp
This is not a blueprint - rather so - a mull sheet. The DCF's / EVA can be rather flexible for considering variations & alternatives.
My first thought, is that IMF was in no need to go ahead with the SPV, ►IF◄ the growth in IMF-Bentham was no more than was to be expected. Sufficient CASH is on hand, to have got IMF over the Case Investment explosion (for want of a word) 5 quarters ago.
IF IMF can maintain the Spread that once existed prior to 2015/2014, when a succession of cases were lost, appealed & withdrawn, substantial growth can be supported through internal finance, and there is no need for IMF - Bentham to compromise.
The increase yield paid to Fortress, and that Fortress will demand in this SPV, will not be value accretive to shareholders, unless a vanguard of unexpected growth is to tumble down onto an unsuspecting IMF-Bentham!
So though I show the SPV worth 25 ¢ per share, THE loss to the old IMF - Bentham exceeds the 25 ¢ !
This deal only makes sense on big, big growth in the SPV
A sense of breathlessness & white knuckles, could make it all make sense.
Cheers - have a great weekend
IMF Price at posting:
$1.88 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held