CTP 0.00% 5.4¢ central petroleum limited

Given all the discussion in the previous thread, this was a...

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  1. 5,334 Posts.
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    Given all the discussion in the previous thread, this was a timely answer to pretty much all of O&GI's questions! It looks pretty much as I said in my previous post - Stage 1 of IPL GSA supplied by existing production, Stage 2 dependent on lateral upgrade, which has been given a timeline of Q3 FY20.

    Also I'm impressed with the quality and detail of the info in the presentation - much better than anything RC usually gave us. RC gave much of the same info in total, but in a trickle over multiple presentations surrounded by filler and buzzwords and making it a real effort to get a true picture. Here it's all laid out, clear and concise. Great stuff, well done to whoever compiled it.

    Couple of other points of interest - they seem to have written off the oil reserves at Surprise completely. It was obvious the 1 MMbbls 2P was a massive overestimate but now reserves are zero. I assume this was reported in a previous annual report but it's the first time I remember seeing it due to the aforementioned jumble of previous presentations. I was hoping that with oil up and the AUD down it would make sense to start Surprise again, but apparently not. However they do say it is still recharging so I still hope it will be reopened some day, and maybe they'll get another 50,000 bbls or so out of it. Then shut it in again and repeat.

    Good to have confirmation on pipeline tolls. Published toll of $3.60-3.80 to Ballera is still high compared to Qld or Cooper operators but it's significantly cheaper than the $5 people were forecasting under the previous regulatory regime. Credit must go to RC for this for his strong lobbying. It turns the NGP gas from marginal even at $8/GJ sale price into really quite competitive for CTP's sunk capex Amadeus gas. Still a challenge for new drilling in tight reservoir, though.

    9 wells and a production pilot is a very good appraisal program for the Qld block. My big fear was that they would do a Senex and under-appraise the resource before over-committing, but this should de-risk the block very nicely.

    Longer term, Ooraminna and hopefully Dukas to look forward to. Despite all the recent doom and gloom and SP weakness, I think the company is actually looking in pretty decent shape post-RC. If only the market would agree with me...
    Last edited by psi81: 12/09/18
 
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