Justin Just my own opinion of course, defiantly DYOR. Dealing...

Justin

Just my own opinion of course, defiantly DYOR.

Dealing with one thing at a time...

NGP1 capacity being taken up by PWC.


As far as I know, the PWC Bonaparte delivery  pipeline from Blacktop has a capacity of 82 TJ/day so after they have serviced the IPL (32TJ/Day) and the contract down the Tanami pipeline)  that probably only leaves something like 45 TJ/Day to service Darwin.   If CTP/MAC hasn't captured all the spare NGP capacity the PWC could perhaps send some spare  spot contact gas down the NGP1 particularly if the haulage tariffs are reduced. which would be to our disadvantage.

As I understand it CTP lost the "Dead Cow" bid because "We didn't have the gas" but it may be a blessing in disguise.

In any case I have taken a punt and de- risked this one at this stage.


My situation...


Mate, I sold a holding in the tier below the top 20 at 20 C  after leveraging down aggressively to well below that.


Back in at just over 8C but with a much smaller holding  and am sitting on the fence. I hold a very  weighted  spread across similar  O&G Juniors and have been fortunate enough to buy in at half their present price to spread my risk.


From the perspective of a  Monte-Carlo software (That can think probabilistically)  at my disposal and a powerful computer to do hundreds of thousands of combinations in seconds  it is pretty scary (For me) to see shareholders  using much simpler models.


Having been involved closely in drilling something like 4,000 wells and the drilling & associated results are least of my worries because CTP have unequivocally stated that the ability to fill the NGP1 is not dependent on them and the probability of the horizontal drilling being a total failure is very low.

Investing in O&G juniors can have huge rewards but is not without risk & the path to monetisation that flows to shareholders is a long one.

Hope this helps

Best regards

OGP